I’ve commented postively on AI tools and how they increase productivity. Does that mean I think we’re all ascending into AI heaven within the near future? No, I don’t. In fact – despite enthusiasm for the great AI tools which I’ve used, I have different feelings about AI on the grand scale – which I personally view as a bit of a mania.
Case in point – during Meta’s second quarter results conference call, CFO Susan Li said this: “On the genAI side, we are clearly much, much earlier on the return curve, and we don’t expect that the genAI work is going to be a meaningful driver of revenue this year or next year.”
I was surprised she admitted it. I was even more surprised when nobody on the call asked the obvious question: “So… when?” Of all companies, Meta should not be making bold predictions about new revenue – the same company which promised that people would soon be “living in the Metaverse”, a proposition which is still losing them billions of dollars with basically zero market in-roads. Ever met anyone who even talks about Metaverse? Me neither.
I am apparently in the minority on my skepticism. Meta stock leapt 10% after the call due to strong earnings and excitement surrounding the prediction, which tapered off to more of a 6% gain.
When we’re talking about using AI to help expedite minutae in daily life, the utility of AI is firmly established. I’m happy to propagandize Github Copilot for coding and ChatGPT to look up “recipes using fennel and swordfish”. When we’re talking about massive AI initiatives – billions of dollars of investment on sweeping promises such as “90% of our code will be completely generated and deployed by AI” – it is thus far much less clear to me how successful they will be.
What drives a lot of the mania? Simple: FOMO and peer pressure. No enterprise wants to be the one that gets left behind if all the AI pieces suddenly fall into place, and the pressure to make everyone think that you are cutting edge.
I think the following from this Bloomberg article (paywalled) sums it up: “Even before ChatGPT set off a frenzied gold rush for AI investments, plenty of companies oversold their technical capabilities to take advantage of the fascination with AI as a powerful business elixir. ‘There’s a lot of pressure to say you’re using AI. Sometimes that pressure takes the shape of flat-out lies,’ said Emily Bender, a professor at the University of Washington who studies the field. ‘A key component of hype is playing on people’s fear of missing out.‘ “
I think the logical end of this will be the popping of a massive AI bubble – and there is nothing new about that process, by the way. It is a tale as old as time – look at any major technological innovation which hits the market, and you’ll see a period of mania and exuberance surrounding multiple actors making big promises until an eventual bust. Some economic trigger event – could be anything – causes the tide to flow out, and then we see who is swimming naked; meaning, who was NOT actually using investor money to produce something of value in an efficient way for which consumers will pay? The enterprises investing in AI who are actually on to something useful and efficient will power through and become superstars, while most of the others will go bust. Such is life.
My opinion, TLDR version: Look for useful opportunities to utilize AI tools in your own daily life but be cautious about the enterprise-scale mania.
Categories: The IT Philosopher
Austin Thomé - Cloud & DevOps Engineer 