Perry Marshall: No AI Within 2020 to 2029?

Marketing expert Perry Marshall has released his 10 predictions for the next decade – with #6 going against the grain of Artifical Intelligence hype:

In his 1999 book “The Age of Spiritual Machines,” Ray Kurzweil predicted that by 2029, personal computers would exceed the intelligence of a human being:

The year is 2029. There is a growing discussion about the legal rights of computers and what constitutes being human… The machines will convince us that they are conscious, that they have their own agenda worthy of our respect. They’ll embody human qualities and claim to be human, and we’ll believe them.

He says the “Singularity” will come, where the future becomes impossible to predict because technological advancement moves at such speed. In Kurzweil’s technological rapture story, we upload ourselves onto the internet and live forever in the cloud.

Not only will there be NO singularity this decade, AI will continue to be dumber than a goldfish. No immortality and no spiritual machines. By 2029, Siri will still not be able to convince a 6 year old that she’s homo sapiens for more than two minutes. Kurzweil has already kicked the 2029 date down the road to 2045. The can will get kicked again.

Pronouncements about the internet “waking up” and AI becoming self-aware are a brilliant diversion from the fact that every one of these technologies is owned by people who are responsible for what their platforms do.

Garbage In Garbage Out… meanwhile, the painstaking discipline of teaching machines to do our work will remain a well-paid, roll-up-your-sleeves, secure, manual-labor job.

Marshall’s discussion on the subject:

Categories: The IT Philosopher

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1 reply

  1. Thank you for your website Austin.
    I’ve read comments of yours on another website over the years and always assumed you were in the home technology business, as your moniker there is ADT Home 176. Or something like that.
    It was a slap on the side of the head to hear Perry Marshall compare Kurzweil’s Singularity to an atheist’s rapture. A good metaphor can do more convincing sometimes than a heavy, thick book. Thanks again.


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