Marketing expert Perry Marshall has released his 10 predictions for the next decade – with #6 going against the grain of Artifical Intelligence hype:
In his 1999 book “The Age of Spiritual Machines,” Ray Kurzweil predicted that by 2029, personal computers would exceed the intelligence of a human being:
He says the “Singularity” will come, where the future becomes impossible to predict because technological advancement moves at such speed. In Kurzweil’s technological rapture story, we upload ourselves onto the internet and live forever in the cloud.
Not only will there be NO singularity this decade, AI will continue to be dumber than a goldfish. No immortality and no spiritual machines. By 2029, Siri will still not be able to convince a 6 year old that she’s homo sapiens for more than two minutes. Kurzweil has already kicked the 2029 date down the road to 2045. The can will get kicked again.
Pronouncements about the internet “waking up” and AI becoming self-aware are a brilliant diversion from the fact that every one of these technologies is owned by people who are responsible for what their platforms do.
Garbage In Garbage Out… meanwhile, the painstaking discipline of teaching machines to do our work will remain a well-paid, roll-up-your-sleeves, secure, manual-labor job.
Marshall’s discussion on the subject:
Categories: The IT Philosopher